Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu Faces a Tough Fight as Opposition Gains Ground

Israel’s October 27 election has dealt a setback to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, exposing the limits of his political support while leaving open the possibility of another term in office.

The election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership after years of conflict, mounting security concerns and political controversy. For the country’s longest-serving prime minister, the vote was a test of political survival. For the opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, it offered an opportunity to bring his long tenure to an end.

With nearly 90% of the votes counted, the results pointed to a deeply divided Knesset, Israel’s 120-member parliament. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc was projected to secure 53 seats, falling eight short of the 61 required for a majority. The opposition bloc was projected to win 48 seats, while Arab-led parties were expected to hold 19.

Likud remains the largest party

Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest single party, with 26 seats, down from 32 in the previous election in 2022.

His far-right allies, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, were projected to win seven and six seats, respectively. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism were each expected to secure seven seats.

Although the results represent a decline in the coalition’s parliamentary strength, Netanyahu retains a significant advantage: his party remains the largest in the Knesset. His experience in coalition negotiations could prove critical as political leaders seek to assemble a government.

Opposition faces its own challenges

The opposition has gained an opportunity to challenge Netanyahu, but forming an alternative government will not be straightforward.

Eisenkot’s camp includes parties with differing positions on security, religion, settlements, and relations with the Palestinians. Even if these parties agree on replacing Netanyahu, maintaining unity on policy and government appointments could prove difficult.

The opposition may also need to consider cooperation with Arab-led parties to reach a parliamentary majority. Such an arrangement could improve its numbers but might create tensions with some of its more nationalist partners.

Arab-led parties gain political leverage

Arab-led parties are projected to secure a combined 19 seats, potentially giving them significant influence over the coalition-building process.

Their support could become important if the opposition attempts to form a government. However, ideological differences and resistance among some Jewish-led parties to relying on Arab-party votes could complicate negotiations.

The results have therefore created a parliamentary balance in which neither of the principal political camps can easily secure power without reaching beyond its existing alliances.

Security and accountability remain central

The election unfolded amid continuing debate over the war in Gaza, Israel’s security policies and the government’s response to the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023.

Netanyahu’s critics have questioned his administration’s handling of the security failures preceding the attacks, its conduct of the war and its approach to accountability. The exemption of many ultra-Orthodox men from compulsory military service has also remained a divisive domestic issue.

At the same time, Netanyahu has continued to emphasise military strength and his government’s confrontations with Iran. These issues have helped shape the political debate, even as voters remain divided over his leadership and the country’s future direction.

Coalition negotiations will determine the outcome

The immediate challenge is to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

Netanyahu could seek to retain his existing partners while negotiating support from lawmakers outside his bloc. Alternatively, a broader unity arrangement could emerge if political leaders decide that a compromise government is preferable to prolonged deadlock.

Eisenkot and his allies face a similar challenge: they must demonstrate that their combined support can translate into a stable government. If neither side can secure a viable majority, Israel could face an extended period of political uncertainty and the possibility of another election.

The outcome will depend on the completed vote count and the negotiations that follow.

Netanyahu weakened, but still in the race

The election has not delivered a decisive victory to either side. Netanyahu’s coalition has lost ground, but Likud’s position as the largest party leaves him with a viable route to another term.

For the opposition, the challenge is no longer simply to defeat Netanyahu at the ballot box. It must now demonstrate that it can unite a fragmented political landscape and assemble a government capable of governing.

For now, Netanyahu remains weakened but politically relevant. The decisive battle has shifted from the ballot box to the negotiating table, where the next government and potentially the future direction of Israeli politics—will be determined.